Anwar winning in the arena of public opinion

But keeping the opposition alliance together is something else

By Carolyn Hong, Malaysia Bureau Chief

KUALA LUMPUR - BUFFETED by allegations of sodomy and facing possible jail time, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has so far shown himself to be a master politician in keeping public opinion on his side.

Recent polls show that most Malaysians believe the accusation to be politically motivated.

But cracks rapidly showing up in Datuk Seri Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat opposition alliance indicate that he may have a struggle on his hands keeping the coalition of unlikely members together as he fights to clear his name and stay out of jail.

Mr Anwar has shown tactical skill in his reaction to the fallout from the sexual assault charge made by his 23-year-old aide Saiful Bukhari Azlan three weeks ago.

As Malaysians reeled in shock at the apparent re-run of a similar charge levelled at him a decade ago, Mr Anwar swiftly went on the attack, pointing to Deputy Premier Najib Razak, his closest rival for the premiership of Malaysia, as the one behind a political conspiracy to smear his name.

If Malaysians were initially unsure whether to see Mr Anwar as a victim or as a politician whose closeted activities had finally caught up with him, it would appear that more are now on his side.

A poll of 225 Malays conducted three weeks ago by the independent Merdeka Centre research firm found that only 6per cent believed the sodomy accusation, and nearly 60per cent thought it to be politically motivated.

Mr Ibrahim Suffian, who runs Merdeka Centre, told The Straits Times yesterday that a second survey conducted recently showed almost identical results. This survey covered 1,000 Malaysians of all races.

The parallels between now and 1998 - on both occasions Mr Anwar was hit by sodomy charges while challenging the incumbent for power - were already a plus for the opposition leader in the battle for public opinion.

The message - that there is a political conspiracy to destroy his political career - has since been hammered home by his repeated attacks on the credibility of Malaysia's justice system, and his stand-offs with the police, most recently over his refusal to give a DNA sample for fear of tampering.

The police did not help their case with the heavy-handed use of balaclava-clad officers to grab him for questioning.

Another plus for Mr Anwar: He faces a Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition still struggling to come to terms with its drubbing in the March 8 polls.

Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng sees the BN as suffering from a credibility deficit and believes that, regardless of the outcome in the Anwar saga, it will be the loser.

'Whether he is convicted or not, whether he goes to jail or not, the winner will be Anwar. In politics, public perception is everything,' he said.

Yet the prize that Mr Anwar wants - taking over the government of Malaysia - seems to be slipping out of reach.

The Pakatan Rakyat alliance that he cobbled together is showing signs of increasing strain. Issues of race and religion divide coalition partners Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and the Chinese- based Democratic Action Party (DAP).

Mr Anwar's message of multiracialism has also discomfited some in PAS and in his own Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), who fear it would be at the expense of Malay rights and dominance.
The first sign of a crack came a few weeks back when Umno made known publicly that the Perak state government was close to falling apart.

Perak DAP chief Ngeh Koo Ham denies it but the fact remains that the opposition coalition there will topple if just two of its state assemblymen defect.

The defections, if any, are more likely to come from PKR.

PAS, too, is showing signs of restlessness by holding 'Malay unity' talks with its arch rival Umno.
Political analysts Ong Kian Ming and Oon Yeoh, in an article on the news portal Malaysiakini, suggest that Mr Anwar has gone too fast in his bid to seize power.

In the process, they note, 'he has totally neglected to build up the institutional capacity of Pakatan as an alternative governing coalition'.

The sodomy charge and legal entanglements will hobble Mr Anwar in his quest, deterring potential defectors from the BN and unsettling his PAS allies.

Significantly, neither PAS nor the DAP has endorsed his claim of a political conspiracy even as they demand an independent investigation.

Mr Anwar has embarked on a roadshow to defend himself. The days ahead will not be easy. He may win his private battle, but the war for power has become much more difficult with a fracturing base.

carolynh@sph.com.sg

Sumber: The Straits Times